![]() ![]() Ukraine will never run out of 155 mm ammunition―there will always be some flowing in―but artillery units might have to ration shells and fire at only the highest priority targets. ![]() With the front line now mostly stationary, artillery has become the most important combat arm. To bridge the gap, other countries will have to provide ammunition, and a lot of it. Even the 2025 surge rate would satisfy only a third of this need. Combined with shells fired from Ukraine's Soviet-era artillery, this is in the vicinity of the 6,000–7,000 per day that Ukraine has said it was firing (and which was considered inadequate). It is not clear how many of the million rounds they have used in the six months of operations, but, assuming Ukraine has one month of artillery ammunition left on hand, that comes out to 143,000 rounds fired a month, or about 4,800 rounds per day. Those probably arrived in May and began firing intensively in June. In April, the United States announced it was sending 155 mm howitzers to Ukraine. That is a big assumption because of Ukraine’s high shell usage. At this surge rate, it would take about six years to rebuild inventories allowing for normal peacetime usage and assuming no further transfers from inventory. DOD says that it can get that rate up to 20,000 per month (240,000 per year) by the spring of 2023 and 40,000 per month (480,000 per year) by 2025. Annual training requirements are likely equal to the recent production levels since these programs have been around for a long time, the budget levels have been relatively constant for several years, and there has been no need to increase inventories.Ĭurrent production is 3,250 per month. Simulators can provide only a small substitute because of their limited ability to replicate all elements of the firing process. Artillery units must fire a certain number of rounds every year to be proficient. Rebuilding inventories at the current production rate is probably not possible because of routine U.S. Military planners appear to regard this as the most serious shortage since artillery constitutes the backbone of ground-based firepower. It continues to provide some, though these may be pass-throughs from allies like South Korea who don't want to transfer lethal aid directly. The United States has provided about 1,000,000 projectiles to Ukraine. This category consists of a wide variety of non-precision projectiles, mostly the basic high explosive (HE) shell (M795) but also specialty shells like extended range HE, smoke, illumination, and marking (white phosphorus). ![]() The color code indicates the difficulty of the rebuilding effort. “Total time to rebuild” includes both manufacturing lead time and production time. “Production time” is how long it would take to produce all the required inventory. This interval is typically about 24 months but varies by system. “Manufacturing lead time” is the period between when a contract is signed and when the first item arrives. peacetime training and stockpile testing. For munitions, the production applied to rebuilding inventories is reduced to account for U.S. It takes one to two years to get to this higher level. This higher rate is either the "1-8-5" or "MAX" level depending on where current production is. "Surge" reflects higher rates where DOD has said it would increase production. "Recent" production reflects levels funded in the last few years. Production rates come from DOD budget documents, particularly the Army's procurement justification books for missiles and ammunition. The number transferred to Ukraine comes from periodic DOD fact sheets. Note: The table is built from DOD sources plus estimates based on administration statements, news reports, interviews with officials, and the author's experience in the military as an artillery officer and with acquisition in the Pentagon. The table below lays out weapons and munitions where concerns have arisen about inventories. For most items, there are workarounds, but there may be a crisis brewing over artillery ammunition. Most inventories, though not all, will take many years to replace. This commentary continues that analysis by examining inventory replacement times. Are inventories getting too low? How long will it take to rebuild those inventories? An earlier CSIS commentary identified those inventories that are at risk as a result of transfers to Ukraine. As the United States transfers massive amounts of weapons, munitions, and supplies to Ukraine, questions arise about the health of U.S. ![]()
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